Bayesian Fractal Trader

Trade with Bayesian Precision & Fractal Insight

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Key Features

⚙️ Adaptive Bayesian Updating

Continuously refines trade probability with each market tick, adapting to changing conditions.

🔍 Real‑time Fractal Detection

Detects fractal patterns with configurable shift to pinpoint high‑probability reversal points.

💰 Virtual SL/TP Tracking

Simulates stop‑loss and take‑profit levels to measure performance without risking capital.

📊 Separate Bull/Bear Counters

Tracks successes and failures for both directions and opposite‑direction trades.

📏 Fixed Lot Sizing

Ensures consistent risk exposure across all trades for reliable money management.

🛠️ Easy‑to‑Adjust Parameters

Intuitive inputs for threshold, priors, lot size, and fractal shift let you tune the strategy.

How It Works

1

Define Virtual SL/TP & Lot Size

Set your virtual stop‑loss and take‑profit in points and choose a fixed lot size for consistent risk.

2

Set Bayesian Threshold & Prior

Choose the probability threshold for entering a real trade and an initial prior probability (e.g., 0.5).

3

Engine Scans & Updates

Each tick, the algorithm looks for fractals, updates success/failure counters, computes posterior probability, and triggers a trade when posterior > threshold.

Performance Snapshot

68%
Virtual Win Rate
0.42%
Avg. Profit/Trade
12,438
Total Virtual Trades
0.73
Current Bayesian Confidence

Bayesian Probability Calculator

Fractal Pattern Preview

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I install the Bayesian Fractal Trader indicator?

The indicator is provided as an .ex5 file for MetaTrader 5. Simply copy it into the MQL5/Indicators folder, restart your platform, and attach it to any chart.

Can I optimize the parameters for different timeframes?

Yes. The indicator exposes inputs for Virtual SL/TP, Bayesian threshold, prior probability, lot size, and fractal shift. Adjust them per timeframe to suit volatility and signal frequency.

Is it compatible with brokers that offer ECN or STP execution?

Absolutely. The algorithm works purely on price data; it sends virtual orders only for performance tracking. Real trade execution is handled by your EA or manual action based on the signal.

What risk management does the system incorporate?

The system uses a fixed lot size and virtual SL/TP to keep risk constant. You can also set a maximum daily loss or enable a trailing stop in your EA for additional protection.

Start Trading Smarter

Download the Bayesian Fractal Trader indicator, configure your preferences, and begin leveraging probabilistic fractal signals today.

Download Indicator